"Villar is Finished," by Joel Rocamora (April 7, 2010)

April 8, 2010

“Villar is Finished,” by Joel Rocamora (April 7, 2010)

Villar is Finished

Joel Rocamora, April 7, 2010

The biggest news in the campaign, now only a month from the May 10 election, is the collapse of the Villar candidacy. His main competitor, Noynoy Aquino has not increased his survey numbers since January. But in three months, Villar has lost ten whole points, going from a statistical tie with Aquino in the January Pulse Asia at 37-35 percent, to being 12 points behind in the end March Pulse Asia survey. With an estimated turnout of 40 million, that puts Villar almost 5 million votes behind Aquino.

In theory, Villar can still catch up. The Aquino camp cannot afford to be over confident at this point. A month is a long time in a presidential election campaign. Many observers look to the collapse of Lakas Kampi as Villar’s salvation. In this scenario, Lakas Kampi politicians will shift from Gibo Teodoro to Villar in droves, providing Villar with enough added votes to overcome Aquino’s lead. There are a number of problems with this scenario.

Many analysts credit local politicians with being able to “deliver” some 20 percent of the national vote, maximum. If all Lakas Kampi politicians go over to the Villar camp, they might be able to collect enough votes to overcome the Aquino lead. GMA is supposed to be secretly organizing this. But if Lakas Kampi is falling apart because GMA is not providing enough money to Lakas Kampi politicians, why should they listen to GMA. Another problem is timing. Exactly when and how has to be done with very little time left.

Politicians’ vulnerability to transactional politics depends on their time frame. Lakas Kampi politicians facing tough elections will be more vulnerable. But if you’re a sure winner, you have a longer time frame. You will calculate the difference between getting Villar’s money now and not getting money for six whole years in an Aquino presidency. In other words, the LP has even chances for garnering the support of the more powerful Lakas Kampi politicians as long as Aquino’s survey lead is sustained for another month, or even only a couple of weeks.

Even assuming Villar gets maximum support from Lakas Kampi, he becomes even more vulnerable to charges of being “Villaroyo”. He may generate votes from the 20 percent local politicians’ vote banks, but he will lose more in the 80 percent market votes. The “Villaroyo” line of attack is one of the most powerful among many. There is ample evidence that GMA is an issue in this election whether it is in Gibo’s “kiss of death” problem, or in contributing to Aquino’s popularity.

Messaging

It is generally acknowledged that Villar has managed to get as far as he has in the campaign because of his successful messaging. Brilliantly crafted TV ads deliver a compelling message. Villar, a poor boy, from Tondo has become a fabulously rich man through sipag at tiaga (hard work and persistence). As president, he will make it possible for other poor people to break out of poverty as he has. The message is “hardened” through giveaways of houses and scholarships at TV shows favored by the poor. This message line enabled Villar to go from an also run in early 2009 surveys to the main competitor to Aquino in January 2010.

This campaign line began to fall apart in February 2010. It started with the Senate report on the C5 controversy. It was not just that the Committee of the Whole report accused Villar of using his power to get C5 rerouted to benefit his subdivisions, getting Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile angry enough to directly attack him made things a lot worst. While Villar’s maneuvers prevented the report from being finalized, media coverage brought home what many political insiders have known for years, Villar has used his political power to advance his business interests with impunity. He became rich not because of sipag at tiaga but through the use of political power.

Villar is also vulnerable because of his real estate business. When you expand the number of subdivisions of your business fast as Villar has, you inevitably step on a number of toes. Small farmers eased out of their lands through fair means or foul began to come out in the media. In Iloilo, a Villar subdivision was built on rice land without DAR clearance; the only road to the subdivision built with Villar pork barrel. Although difficult to popularize because of their complexity, there are also reports of multi-billion peso financial manipulation.

Villar’s message was drilled into national consciousness through unprecedented, massive expenditures for TV ads. In 2009, Villar spent more than a billion pesos just on ads. Being rich is certainly useful for a presidential candidate. In Villar’s case, it got turned against him. It started with first, Enrile, accusing Villar of trying to bribe him to go easy on the C5 case, followed later by Senator Dick Gordon making similar accusations. The scale of Villar’s TV and overall campaign expenditures also became an issue. His insistence that he is using his own money got people wondering how Villar would recoup these expenses once he became president.

The latest to get hammered is the core of Villar’s message, that he comes from the poor. The problem with this is that unlike Erap’s “para sa mahirap” (for the poor) which expresses an intention, which is difficult to question, Villar makes a statement of fact, “I was once poor”. The evidence points to his family being middle class which is not a problem. But when your ads say you “swam in a sea of garbage” or that your brother died because your family could not afford hospitalization, you open yourself up to attack for making exaggerated claims.

Villar camp counterattacks have been ineffective. They’ve focused their attack on Noynoy Aquino, most attacks along the lines of “you’re no different from me”, so for C5, SCTEX, the latest that Aquino used his influence during his mother’s presidency to secure a contract for a security company he owned. It’s not just that they’ve had difficulty substantiating their claims. Because Aquino’s overall image is that he is honest, while people minimally have questions about Villar’s honesty, Villar has suffered by comparison. Aquino’s anti-corruption line has been strengthened.

Machinery

The prevailing wisdom in this campaign is that Villar money has enabled him to build a bigger, and better machinery than Aquino. The facts are opposite. The LP has 7,576 candidates down to municipal councilor to the NPs 6,942; 136 congressional candidates to the NPs 77; 37 gubernatorial candidates to the NPs 26; 723 mayoral candidates to the NPs 579. In an Aquino-Villar face off, Aquino is dominant in NCR, CAR, and regions 3,4,6,8,9,10, and 12. Villar is stronger only in regions 1,5, and 11. There’s a tie (neither candidate has an advantage) in regions 2,7, and 13.

Even if we assume that many Lakas Kampi people will move to Villar in the coming month, he has a long way to go to make up for his initial disadvantage. Some analysts say that maybe as many as 40% of Lakas Kampi will go to Villar, but another 30% will stay with Teodoro. The LP has a good chance of winning over the remaining 30%. Another possible factor is Erap who is running a strong third in the surveys.

The Supreme Court is sitting on the disqualification case of Erap, presumably waiting until the election itself. If Erap loses, the case is moot and academic; it’s only an issue if he wins. If Erap is disqualified by the Supreme Court, it is unclear where his votes would go. On the one hand, he and Villar have similar D and E bases, and pro-poor issues. The surveys show, on the other hand, that while Villar’s numbers will spike by some 8 points, Aquino is not far behind at 6 points.

Erap and his sons have been attacking Villar the last couple of months. It is difficult to say if this reflects real animosity, therefore making it unlikely that Erap would endorse Villar if he’s disqualified, or tactical play. In his position, the immediate target voters are Villar’s. Before he can even think about defeating Noynoy, he first has to overtake Villar. Its not just that Erap takes a chunk of Villar’s potential D and E votes, by attacking Villar, he is helping Noynoy.

There is, of course, the possibility of cheating massive enough to secure victory, presumably for GMA’s real candidate. Despite all the attacks on the system, however, I really doubt that anyone has mastered the automated system enough to overcome Smartmatic’s interest in successful automation. There may be problems either with the PCOS or with electronic transmission that will affect a percentage of the vote. But if one presidential candidate has a large enough lead, this will only postpone proclamation. If the unlikely event of an outright failure of elections happens, well…that will be another story altogether.[i]

[i] Joel Rocamora is in the campaign staff of Noynoy Aquino.

1:10pm | URL: http://tmblr.co/Z42vXyU6Igs

(Notes: 55)